InfoSAWIT, KUALA LUMPUR — Malaysia's palm oil stock is projected to rise for the fifth consecutive month in July, reaching its highest level in nearly two years, as production growth outpaces exports, according to a Reuters survey conducted on Monday (August 11).
Stocks are expected to increase to 2.25 million metric tons, reflecting a 10.8% rise compared to June, based on the median estimates from 11 market players, growers, and analysts surveyed. CPO production is anticipated to reach 1.83 million metric tons, an 8% increase from the previous month, reversing last month's decline and marking the highest level in a year.
This stock increase is driven by a surge in production and adjustments in domestic consumption data, said Anilkumar Bagani, Head of Research at Sunvin Group, a Mumbai-based vegetable oil broker.
Bagani noted that stock levels above 2 million tons during peak production season are not concerning, given that Indonesian palm oil export supplies remain tight due to the implementation of the B40 biodiesel mandate.
"However, palm oil must compete fiercely with soybean oil from South America and the Black Sea, which has seen excellent harvests this season," he stated, as reported by InfoSAWIT from Reuters on Wednesday (August 13, 2025).
Malaysia's palm oil product exports in July are expected to rise by 3.2% to 1.3 million metric tons, reversing the previous month's downward trend. However, Malaysia's shipping pace is hindered by aggressive discount offers from Indonesia, which is striving to ship as much as possible before higher export tariffs take effect in August, explained Tajgir Rahman, General Manager of Trading and Procurement at IFFCO.
The Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) is scheduled to release official monthly data on August 11.
July Estimates (in metric tons):
Production: 1,792,000 – 1,865,000 (median: 1,827,695)
Exports: 1,146,012 – 1,500,000 (median: 1,300,000)
Imports: 25,000 – 85,000 (median: 60,000)
Ending Stock: 2,099,580 – 2,490,312 (median: 2,250,000)
With June's official stock at 2,030,580 tons, combined with estimated production and imports in July, the total supply for last month is projected to reach 3,918,275 tons. Based on median export and ending stock figures, Malaysia's domestic consumption in July is estimated at 368,275 tons. (T2)
