InfoSAWIT, JAKARTA – Indonesia's oil palm sector and other land-based industries are being urged to step up vigilance ahead of September 2026, as the Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) forecasts a broader risk of forest and land fires, with several regions expected to face increasingly dry conditions.
Based on BMKG's Climate Information Bulletin for Plantation Commodities, September is projected to carry the widest wildfire hotspot risk during the September-November 2026 period.
Rainfall is expected to remain generally low to moderate across much of Indonesia. BMKG forecasts that 75.05% of the country's territory will receive low rainfall in September, while only 1.81% is expected to experience high to very high rainfall.
The outlook also points to drier-than-normal conditions. Around 87.19% of Indonesia is forecast to experience below-normal rainfall in September. The proportion is expected to remain high at 81.60% in October before easing to 62.30% in November.
September Expected to See Broadest Hotspot Risk
BMKG's climate suitability index for forest and land fire hotspots identifies September as the month with the broadest spread of medium and high-risk areas during the three-month outlook period.
Medium to high risks are forecast across southern Sumatra, Kalimantan, Nusa Tenggara, Sulawesi and southern Papua.
Jambi is among the provinces requiring particular attention, with medium wildfire risk projected to cover around 78% of its territory.
Other provinces with significant medium-risk coverage include:
- West Kalimantan: around 45%
- West Nusa Tenggara: around 42%
- West Sulawesi: around 39%
- South Sulawesi: around 35%
- Gorontalo: around 32%
High-risk conditions are expected to be especially concentrated in South Kalimantan, where around 96% of the province is projected to fall into the high-risk category.
Central Kalimantan follows at approximately 84%, while South Sumatra is forecast at 76% and Bangka Belitung Islands at around 73%.
High-risk conditions are also expected to affect significant parts of East Nusa Tenggara, East Kalimantan, Lampung, Gorontalo and West Nusa Tenggara.
BMKG said the outlook underlines the need for stronger preparedness, including intensified hotspot monitoring and tighter control of activities that could trigger fires.
Water Availability for Crops Also a Concern
Beyond wildfire risk, water availability for crops is also expected to become an important issue.
For the September-November 2026 period, BMKG forecasts that much of Indonesia will face inadequate water availability for agricultural crops.
In September, adequate water availability is still expected across much of Aceh, North Sumatra, Riau, West Sumatra and parts of Papua. However, most other areas are forecast to fall into the insufficient category.
Several districts and cities in Jambi are also projected to face inadequate crop water availability, including Tebo, West Tanjung Jabung, East Tanjung Jabung, Muaro Jambi, Batanghari and Jambi City.
For plantation operators, the outlook signals the need to strengthen water management, monitor soil and land moisture, and prepare for potentially drier conditions.
Risks Expected to Ease Toward November
The forecast indicates that hotspot risks will begin to decline in October and fall further in November, although several regions are still expected to require close monitoring.
In October, Jambi is projected to have around 33% of its territory under medium wildfire risk. High-risk areas are expected to remain concentrated in South Kalimantan at around 85%, followed by Southeast Sulawesi at 57%, East Nusa Tenggara at 54%, Central Kalimantan at 47% and South Sumatra at 44%.
By November, lower-risk conditions are expected to dominate across most of Indonesia. Medium and high risks are forecast to become more localized, particularly in parts of Nusa Tenggara, Sulawesi, southern Papua, Lampung, southern Kalimantan and the southern coast of Java.
For Indonesia's oil palm industry, the September outlook serves as an early warning to strengthen preventive measures before dry conditions intensify. Personnel readiness, routine patrols, hotspot surveillance, water management and coordination with local communities and authorities will remain critical to preventing small fires from escalating into larger disasters.
With September projected to carry the broadest wildfire risk over the coming three months, early detection and rapid response will be essential in protecting plantations, surrounding communities and vulnerable landscapes. (T2)
Source: InfoSAWIT
