InfoSAWIT, JAKARTA – Crude palm oil (CPO) tenders conducted by PT Kharisma Pemasaran Bersama Nusantara (KPBN) ended in withdrawals on Wednesday, June 17, 2026, despite recording higher bid levels compared with the previous trading session.
The highest offer reached Rp15,150/kg, representing an increase of Rp151/kg, or approximately 1.01%, from the highest bid recorded on June 15, which stood at Rp14,999/kg.
According to market information obtained by InfoSAWIT, the Franco Dumai tender opened at Rp15,400/kg but concluded with a withdrawal after the highest bid reached Rp15,150/kg.
Similarly, the FOB Teluk Bayur tender opened at Rp15,270/kg before being withdrawn, with the highest offer recorded at Rp14,970/kg. The FOB Talang Duku tender opened at Rp15,200/kg and was also withdrawn after receiving a top bid of Rp14,950/kg.
Beyond domestic trading activity, industry attention is increasingly focused on weather developments that could affect global palm oil production in the second half of 2026.
According to reports cited by New Straits Times, market research firm CGS International Securities Malaysia warned that a stronger El Niño event could emerge later this year, raising concerns over production prospects in both Indonesia and Malaysia.
Based on discussions with agronomist Dr. Lee Chin Tui and data from the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the probability of a strong El Niño developing between November 2026 and January 2027 has been estimated at 63%.
Dry weather conditions may begin appearing as early as July 2026, potentially affecting crop yields.
Historical data highlight the risks. During the 2016 El Niño event, Malaysian CPO production fell by 13.2% year-on-year, while major Indonesian palm oil producers experienced average output declines of 13.4%. Indonesia also recorded production contractions of 5.3% in 2019 and 8% in 2024 during periods of below-average rainfall.
If similar weather patterns emerge, global palm oil supply could tighten significantly, potentially providing support for higher CPO prices in international markets during late 2026 and early 2027. (T2)
