InfoSAWIT, BEIJING — Chinese soybean importers are facing significantly higher costs should they be required to purchase an additional 8 million tonnes of US soybeans, particularly as Brazil enters its peak export season with far more competitive pricing. This situation has created a dilemma between commercial logic and diplomatic considerations for Beijing.
Despite weaker commercial appeal, market participants believe the Chinese government may still instruct state-owned firms to buy US soybeans in response to political signals from Donald Trump, who recently stated that Beijing is considering large purchases ahead of his planned visit to China in April.
“Is there any market logic for China to buy more US soybeans when Brazil’s new crop is entering the market? No,” said Even Rogers Pay, Director at Beijing-based consultancy Trivium China, as quoted by InfoSAWIT from Reuters, Sunday (8/2/2026). “But could it help smooth Trump’s state visit and make it more productive? Possibly.”
Benchmark soybean prices on the Chicago Board of Trade have climbed close to two-month highs on expectations of stronger Chinese demand. Trump has claimed that China is considering purchases of up to 20 million tonnes of US soybeans this season following what he described as “very positive” talks with Xi Jinping.
However, Brazil remains far more competitive on price. US soybeans for April shipment are being offered at premiums of about US$2.08–US$2.48 per bushel over May CBOT contracts, including freight to China. Brazilian soybeans, by contrast, are priced at around US$1.18–US$1.33 per bushel—equivalent to a difference of roughly US$50 per tonne on an FOB basis.
“With spreads like this, buying US soybeans makes no commercial sense,” said a Singapore-based trader. At current prices, China would need to pay more than US$400 million extra to import 8 million tonnes from the United States instead of Brazil.
The situation is further complicated by China’s 13% import tariff on US soybeans, compared with just 3% for Brazilian supplies. As a result, private crushers have shown little interest. Since the marketing year began in September, no private Chinese buyers have been recorded purchasing US soybean cargoes, with crushing margins in the key hub of Rizhao remaining negative since August.
Instead, purchases have been dominated by state-owned enterprises. Sinograin and COFCO have reportedly bought around 12 million tonnes of US soybeans since trade talks resumed in October, paying nearly US$100 million more than they would have by sourcing from Brazil.
To manage incoming supplies, Sinograin has conducted four auctions since December, releasing about 2 million tonnes of imported soybeans from state reserves. Market participants expect additional auctions to be held after the Lunar New Year holiday later this month. (T2)
