InfoSAWIT, CANBERRA — Wheat futures prices on the Chicago exchange weakened again at the beginning of this week, reaching their lowest point since mid-May and nearly matching the lowest level in the last five years. The abundant supply due to ongoing harvests in the Northern Hemisphere is the main factor pressuring prices.
The most active wheat contract on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) was recorded down 0.4% to $5.14-3/4 per bushel at 04:53 GMT, after briefly falling to $5.13-1/2, just shy of the lowest level since May 2020, which is $5.06-1/4.
"The wheat market is currently not heavily influenced by concerns about crop conditions," said Tobin Gorey, founder of the Australian agricultural consulting firm Cornucopia, as quoted by InfoSAWIT from Reuters, Tuesday (5/8/2025). He added that the only market concern at the moment is the slow shipment of wheat from the Black Sea region — the world's wheat export hub — which may reflect lower-than-expected harvest results.
However, overall, global supply is still considered abundant. Sovecon consultants last Friday cut their 2025 Russian wheat production forecast to 83.3 million tons from the previous 83.6 million tons, but that figure is still historically large.
On the other hand, other major producing countries are also showing positive harvest prospects. Recent rains in major southern hemisphere export regions such as Argentina and Australia have improved end-of-year harvest projections.
Meanwhile, corn and soybean prices recorded slight increases. CBOT corn rose 0.1% to $4.11 per bushel, and soybeans also strengthened 0.1% to $9.90-1/2 per bushel. Although still overshadowed by expectations of a large harvest from the U.S., corn received some support from increased export demand due to more competitive prices.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) is scheduled to release its latest weekly report on spring wheat harvests on Monday evening local time.
However, market sentiment is also influenced by external factors. New tariff policies imposed by the U.S. on dozens of trading partners have raised concerns about potential trade friction that could affect U.S. agricultural exports. This trade tension has also pressured stock markets and the value of the U.S. dollar.
Recent regulatory data shows that large speculators continue to add to their net short positions on wheat, corn, and soybeans on the CBOT during the week ending July 29, indicating that bearish sentiment still dominates the global agricultural commodity market. (T2)
