InfoSAWIT, BEIJING – China and the United States are expected to reach a new agricultural agreement during high-level talks this week, potentially expanding China’s purchases of US grain and meat products. However, markets do not expect a significant surge in soybean imports from the United States.
The agricultural sector remains one of the few areas with relatively limited tension in bilateral relations between the two countries. Nevertheless, the final form of any agreement between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping remains unclear ahead of the official meeting.
The US government is reportedly seeking larger purchasing commitments from Beijing for agricultural products, including soybeans.
“They know this is something they need and something we want to sell,” a senior US official told reporters while briefing the media on the visit agenda.
According to Reuters, as published online by InfoSAWIT on Thursday (May 14, 2026), the meeting will also be attended by more than a dozen chief executives and senior executives from major US companies, including leaders from global grain trader Cargill.
Despite the discussions, analysts and market participants believe the potential for a major increase in China’s soybean purchases remains limited due to weak domestic demand and more competitive Brazilian soybean prices compared to US supplies.
Instead, markets see greater potential for agreements involving corn, sorghum, milled wheat, beef, and poultry products, which were previously discussed during high-level talks in March.
“There is still room for purchase agreements covering other major US export products. This could take the form of volume purchase contracts for commodities such as corn and sorghum,” said Even Rogers Pay in his analysis.
In 2024, before Donald Trump returned to office, China purchased approximately US$4.5 billion worth of US corn, sorghum, and wheat products. The figure remained well below US soybean imports, which totaled around US$12 billion.
Over recent years, China has also continued reducing its dependence on US agricultural products, particularly soybeans. While around 41% of China’s soybean imports came from the US in 2016, the share declined to roughly 20% in 2024.
Last year, US soybeans accounted for only about 15% of China’s total soybean imports.
Markets are now awaiting clarity regarding the implementation of a previously agreed commitment for China to purchase 25 million tons of US soybeans annually through 2028. If fully realized, the volume would mark the highest level since 2022.
“China has never officially confirmed the details of the agreement. It also remains unclear whether the purchase targets apply on a calendar-year basis or crop-year basis,” Pay noted.
Meanwhile, any confirmation of increased Chinese demand for US soybeans is expected to further support soybean prices on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT), which are already trading at their highest level in the past two months.
“We certainly hope there will be additional purchases from China that could bring exports closer to normal trade volumes,” said Virginia Houston. (T2)
