InfoSAWIT, KUALA LUMPUR – Malaysian crude palm oil (CPO) prices are expected to remain above RM4,600 per tonne in November 2026, supported by seasonal production declines, resilient biodiesel demand and tightening supplies of competing vegetable oils, the Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC) said.
According to New Straits Times, as reported by InfoSAWIT on Friday (October 23, 2026), Malaysia’s CPO production rose 16.4% to 2.11 million tonnes in September, driven by higher fresh fruit bunch output and an improved oil extraction rate. However, production is expected to have peaked in September before declining seasonally over the following five months.
Exports Expected to Recover
Malaysia’s palm oil exports increased 4.3% year-on-year during the first nine months of 2026. Nevertheless, September shipments fell 12.1% to 1.12 million tonnes, reflecting limited vessel availability in the Strait of Malacca and stronger competition from Indonesia.
MPOC expects exports to recover between October and December as shipping availability improves and competing vegetable oil supplies tighten.
Disruptions in the Black Sea region continue to constrain sunflower oil processing, while soybean oil supplies from South America could tighten during the October–December planting season. These developments may strengthen palm oil’s competitiveness, particularly in major markets such as India and China.
Biodiesel Demand Supports Prices
Malaysia’s palm oil inventories are expected to decline from November 2026 through February 2027, providing further support to prices.
Biodiesel demand also remains a significant market driver. Data from the Indonesian Palm Oil Association (GAPKI) showed that domestic palm oil consumption for biodiesel reached a monthly record of 1.35 million tonnes in August 2026, 75% higher than consumption for food purposes.
Annualized, biodiesel demand would amount to approximately 16 million tonnes, indicating Indonesia’s growing approach toward full implementation of its mandatory B50 biodiesel programme.
Despite the supportive outlook, MPOC warned that weaker energy prices, inflationary pressures and softer-than-expected food-sector demand could limit price gains. (T2)
