InfoSAWIT, JAKARTA – The October 2025 edition of the Palm Oil Commodity Plantation Climate Information Bulletin issued by the Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) notes that national climate conditions during September 2025 were still in the Neutral ENSO phase with an index of –0.54. Meanwhile, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) Index shows a negative condition, indicating that sea surface temperatures in most Indonesian waters are relatively warm. Higher sea temperatures were particularly observed in almost all regions, except for the waters west and north of Aceh which are normal.

According to the report, about 61.43% of Indonesian regions experienced medium category rainfall during September 2025. Meanwhile, 28% of other regions experienced high to very high rainfall, and a small portion recorded low rainfall. In terms of rainfall characteristics, 79.64% of Indonesian regions were in the Above Normal (AN) category, 14.46% Normal (N), and 5.90% Below Normal (BN).

The record for the highest daily extreme rainfall occurred in Hujan Kapal, Badung Regency, Bali, reaching 390 mm per day on September 10, 2025. Meanwhile, the lowest air humidity was recorded at Sultan Hasanuddin Meteorological Station, Maros, South Sulawesi, at 42.25% on September 3, 2025. From the monitoring of Rainless Days (HTH), the longest dry period reached 126 days at Pos Wera, Bima Regency, West Nusa Tenggara.

BMKG projects that in the period November 2025 to January 2026, most Indonesian regions will experience medium to high category rainfall, with Normal to Above Normal rainfall characteristics. However, a small portion of regions is predicted to experience low rainfall (<100 mm/month) which could disrupt plant growth, especially in palm oil center provinces like Riau.

In addition, regions such as Aceh, Riau, Jambi, West Kalimantan, Central Kalimantan, East Kalimantan, and South Kalimantan are expected to face below-normal rainfall characteristics, which need to be watched as they can reduce water availability for palm oil plants.

BMKG recommends that business actors and palm farmers anticipate drought risks by efficiently managing irrigation systems, and avoid land burning practices to prevent forest and land fires (karhutla). In addition, the public is urged not to carelessly dispose of cigarette butts in plantation or dry land areas.

With appropriate anticipatory measures, the palm plantation sector is expected to maintain productivity amid changing climate dynamics. (T2)