InfoSAWIT, JAKARTA – The Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) has released its forecast for the rainy season from September to November 2025. In general, Indonesia is predicted to experience medium to high rainfall, with a tendency for normal to above-normal conditions.
In September 2025, approximately 71.42% of Indonesia is expected to receive medium rainfall (100-300 mm/month), while 23.3% will fall into the high to very high category, and only 5.28% will remain low. Entering October, high to very high rainfall is predicted to expand to 41.58% of the country, and by November, that number is expected to increase further to cover 50.79% of the region.
The nature of the rainfall is also predicted to be wetter than usual. BMKG noted that in September 2025, 80.91% of the country will experience above-normal rainfall. This figure is projected to decrease slightly in October (74.30%) and November (60.01%), but still indicates a tendency for higher rainfall than the historical average.
For key palm oil production areas like Aceh, Riau, Jambi, West Kalimantan, Central Kalimantan, East Kalimantan, and South Kalimantan, rainfall is projected to be in the medium to high category. The rainfall conditions in these areas are mostly normal to above-normal, although Aceh and a small part of northern Riau have the potential for below-normal conditions.
BMKG's analysis also highlighted the level of water availability for crops. In July 2025, most of Indonesia was in a sufficient condition, with soil moisture above 60%. However, several areas, such as Riau, Nusa Tenggara, parts of Java, and parts of Sulawesi, showed medium to low conditions, where soil water availability was below 60%, and in some locations, even below 40%.
This forecast is important for the agricultural sector, especially palm oil plantations, which rely heavily on rainfall stability. With a dominance of medium to high rainfall in the next three months, water availability is expected to be relatively maintained, although the potential for excess water and floods still needs to be watched. (T2)
