InfoSAWIT, KUALA LUMPUR – Malaysia’s palm oil inventories are expected to decline through the end of March 2026, marking a third consecutive monthly drop amid surging exports.

According to InfoSAWIT, citing Platts (part of S&P Global Energy) on April 11, 2026, a survey of 14 analysts, traders, and industry players estimates stock levels at 2.173 million metric tons by the end of March.

This decline follows a seven-year high of 3.051 million metric tons in December 2025, driven by strong production and weak demand from key buyers India and China, based on Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) data.

March production is estimated to rise to 1.375 million metric tons, up about 7% month-on-month. However, this increase has not kept pace with export growth.

Exports are projected to reach 1.565 million metric tons, a sharp 38.9% monthly increase, becoming the main driver behind declining stock levels.

Prices Under Global Pressure

Palm oil prices have also faced downward pressure. June futures on Bursa Malaysia fell more than 3% on April 8, 2026, trading at RM 4,615 per ton (approximately US$1,158.67), down 3.1% from the previous day.

The decline was driven by falling global crude oil prices following a ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran, which weakened energy markets.

Additional pressure came from weaker global vegetable oil prices and a stronger Malaysian ringgit.

Palm oil prices are closely linked to crude oil due to its role in biodiesel production—when fossil fuel prices fall, palm oil’s appeal as an alternative energy source weakens.

Despite this, buyers have begun re-entering the market after waiting for price corrections, although levels above RM 4,900 per ton are still considered too high by many. (T2)