InfoSAWIT, KUALA LUMPUR – Malaysia’s palm oil inventories are projected to decline in April 2026, driven by stronger exports and domestic consumption that outpace production and imports.

According to a report by CIMB Securities cited by New Straits Times, stockpiles are expected to fall about 1% month-on-month to 2.24 million tons.

However, early export data paints a mixed picture. Cargo surveyor Amspec reported a sharp 30.7% monthly drop in exports during the first 10 days of April, totaling 402,916 tons.

Global factors are also influencing the market. Rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have pushed energy prices higher, with gasoil surging 71% to US$1,246 per ton and Brent crude climbing 33% to US$96 per barrel following disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.

The anticipated rollout of Indonesia’s B50 biodiesel mandate and higher biofuel targets in the United States are expected to boost global vegetable oil demand. Still, concerns remain over supply constraints, especially amid weather risks such as a potential El Niño event with a 62% probability between June and August 2026.

CIMB forecasts CPO prices to average RM4,400 per ton in 2026, rising to RM4,500 in 2027, supported by biodiesel expansion. (T2)