InfoSAWIT, JAKARTA – Head of Exchange and Business Development of PT Kharisma Pemasaran Bersama (KPBN), Andrial Saputra noted that it is important to know the economic risks to predict commodity price movment in 2023. In a talkshow of Planters #2 that InfoSAWIT attended, Andrial Saputra said, at least, there are seven economic risks to consider.
The first, unstable geopolitics which means, the changing geopolitics relation among many countries would significantly deliver impact to price commodity. Trade tension, weapon conflict or policy substitution in abroad would have something to do with commodity supply and demand.
The second, inflation and interest rate which means, inflation level which is high could minimize the people’s interest to by and this would lead to escalate production costs. High interest rate would influence the investment and loan by the company.
The third, United States (US) interest rate which means, what US has decided would deliver domino effect in many countries. The increasing interest rate in US would lead cashflow from developing countries, including from Indonesia.
The fourth, recession prediction in the globe. Andrial said, if the recession in the globe really happens, the commodity would decrease in demands and could make commodity cheaper.
The fifth, trade balance in Indonesia which means, imbalance between export and import in Indonesia would have something to do with rupiah currency and commodity price. The constringency of trade balance would minimize revenue from export.
The sixth, inflation and Indonesian Bank rate. Andrial thought, inflation in Indonesia and policy about interest rate published by Indonesian Bank (IB Rate) would influence the economy the most. “Higher inflation could minimize the people’s purchase capability while IB Rate would influence the loan cost and investment,” he said as a speaker in Talkshow Planters#2 in Riau where InfoSAWIT attended.
The seventh, slow economic progress which means, if the economy in Indonesia gets slower, the demands on commodity in this country would be decreasing. “This could influence the commodity price in a whole,” he said. (T2)
