InfoSAWIT, KUALA LUMPUR – Global palm oil production is expected to slow in 2026 after two years of expansion, while the laurics market shifts toward balance rather than oversupply.
Speaking at POC 2026, Fastmarkets analyst Sathia Varqa noted that Malaysia’s production is projected to decline slightly to 20 million tonnes in 2026 from 20.28 million tonnes in 2025.
Indonesia’s output is expected to fall more sharply, from 51 million tonnes to 49 million tonnes.
Palm kernel oil production in both countries is also forecast to decline.
Meanwhile, the Philippines is expected to recover strongly, with coconut production rising 23% and exports increasing 20% to 1.2 million tonnes.
Varqa also noted narrowing price spreads between coconut oil and palm kernel oil, particularly in the first half of 2026.
“2026 brings balance, not abundance, to laurics,” he said.
This suggests a more stable market environment, with neither significant surplus nor severe shortage, requiring more cautious strategies from industry players. (T2)
