InfoSAWIT, INDIA – Director of Godrej International, Dorab Mistry mentioned the latest projection about palm oil price at Malaysian Derivatives Exchange. He thought, palm oil could be at about RM 3.700 to RM 4.500 per ton that started until now until June 2025. He was optimist that the new bull trade would be starting in January to March 2024. It may happen for the increasing demands heading to Chinese New Year and Ramadhan.
The climate factor in South America would be the significant key to determine palm oil price and other vegetable oils price. Mistry noted that even though the rain in the region could be postponed, it is predicted to get recovered in the very short. “The uncertainty if the rain would support the planting would be the main concern,” he said, as InfoSAWIT quoted in his description in the Globoil India 2024, Friday (20/9/2024).
Besides, the future of soyoil price at Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) could be recovering as US dollar gets decreasing. The increasing biodiesel demands in USA and the changes from Blenders Credit to be Producers Credit would positively deliver soyoil prospect price.
Mistry continued that every new announcement about sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) would be the additional bullish factor for vegetable oil trade. In 2025, there would be no over sunflower (supply) that could compete with soyoil and rapeseed. This would be positive for vegetable oils price.
Palm oil production showed the decreasing trend. This also would have something to do with crude palm kernel oil price that could be the same as coconut price at about US$ 1.700 to 2.000 CIF Rotterdam from now to June 2025.
With the support of biofuel mandate, vegetable oil price could be more bullish starting from January 2025. But Mistry reminded that the weather that could support the plants in 2024, may not last without any disturbance until the end of season.
In a whole, vegetable oil markets in 2024 and 2025 would have something to do with some factors globally, such as, the weather in South America, biodiesel demands in USA, the policy substitution about biofuel. Palm oil price could be stable until June 2025 and the markets would face the new bullish by the early of next year. (T2)
